By Randall Yip, Executive Editor
History is in the making in California’s 16th Congressional District where Assemblymember Evan Low is in a tie for second place with Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian.
The official vote results will be certified tomorrow, April 4th. However, political analysts say it’s likely that both Low and Simitian will face frontrunner, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo in a three-way race.
Recently retired Democratic political consultant Bill Wong tells AsAmNews it will be the first time in since California switched to a top two vote getter system (regardless of party) in 2010 that there’s been a three-way runoff in a congressional race.
Wong predicts both candidates will forego the expense of paying for a recount and will likely move on to a three-way race. He predicts the results could be different this next time-despite Liccardo’s 6,000 vote advantage over both candidates.
“November turnout will be significantly different in demographics and raw numbers so nothing can be assumed from the primary results as to who would win in November,” said Wong in an email.
Presidential elections typically result in not only higher voter turnout, but also a different demographic of voters. President Biden is working hard to get out the minority vote. If that happens, that could impact the 16th Congressional race.
In addition, the prospect of a higher turnout of younger voters could have an impact. Those under 30 tend to vote left of center. However, the enthusiasm gap for both candidates among younger voters could damper the enthusiasm for casting a ballot.
Both Simitian and Low said they would wait for the vote to be certified before commenting. Low, however, did put out a tongue and cheek post on X.
He called it a “special tie day.”
The top vote getter in the November general election will be declared the next Congressional representative of the 16th District replacing retiring Congresswoman Anna Eshoo.
Low is hoping to be the first gay congressperson from the Bay Area.
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