By David Monkawa
Trump should be impeached for all the crimes he has committed and the human misery he initiates each day. It’s a chance to alleviate immediate suffering at the US Mexico border and in other places. Even if the impeachment does not remove him from office, it may slow down his sociopathic behavior a little. This man seriously considers stocking a moat at the border with alligators and snakes and shooting migrants in the leg to slow them down.
Speaker Pelosi insisted on getting this done quick and “keeping it out of the courts”. To this end, she wants to narrow the scope of impeachment to Trumps extortion of Zelensky to dig up dirt on Biden.
Informative debates about urgent issues for Americans such as healthcare, climate disruption and racial inequality were occupying the national stage as never before. Those debates will continue. However, if these important issues become eclipsed due to the impeachment, and if the impeachment, by default, becomes the issue by which the presidency is decided, it may help Trump.
Does narrowing the scope help?
I’m not a lawyer, but his illegal business deals seemed like good reasons to impeach. What about deportation, separation and detention of minor children or the drone kill-missions every 5 days unapproved by congress? They couldn’t get Al Capone for the St. Valentines Day Massacre but income tax evasion did get him into Alcatraz.
Impeachment appears possible in the House but tough in the Senate where 20 republicans must flip against Trump to vote with all 47 democrats. Republicans like Sen. Mitt Romney, (R-MA) who hates Trump, have said that privately enough republicans dislike Trump and will vote to impeach. Nice thought.
However, I read that potential swing senators face different problems. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) who is facing re-election in 2020, has a constituency that is becoming more “blue” so she may distance herself from Trump if enough voters sour on him. Others like Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ), a devout Trump supporter, is facing a strong democratic challenger in Mark Kelley, former astronaut and husband of former Rep. Gabby Gifford, in a state that’s turning “purple”, where Trump barely won in 2016.
But she must first win the primary against Dan McCarthy a businessman who is calling for a border wall, no gun control, and dismantling Obamacare. He is more faithful to Trump than McSally. McSally probably hopes she never has to vote. It’s not impossible for the senate to roll Trump, but it seems really tough.
The impeachment may not help Biden. Republicans will scream so much about his son getting $50K a month from a Ukranian fossil fuel giant while on Biden’s watch over the Ukraine. Legal or not there’s a chance that it can bum out enough of his soft supporters to make a difference. Also Biden was dropping in the polls before the impeachment began due to his difficulties thinking and his lackluster campaign theme of, “…but I’m electable.”
Since the US support to overthrow the pro-Russian President Yanukovyk, US weapons have been getting into the hands of rightwing neo-nazis in the Ukrainian military such as the Azov Battalion. May not be a good look for Biden or the democrats who supported the Ukranian revolution against Russia.
In November 2020, democrats, progressives, social democrats and independents will face Trump together. Best case, he will be limping from the impeachment and beatable. Worst case, Trump and his base become re-energized with him bragging “They tried to get me twice by Russia-gate and Ukraine-gate but I’m still here .”
Or, we will be facing far-right evangelical wing-nut Mike Pence. Experienced, smart and connected.
Whoever the democratic presidential candidate is they will face a tough gritty fight.
Big events that could change everything:
- A financial crisis- A majority of CEOs of big banks are predicting a big recession in the next few years. That will expose Trump’s fragile economy. Skewed stats show low unemployment rates of 3.7%, but they exclude those not looking for a job and the permanent “precariot”. Inequality is hidden by the big GDP, such as rising rents and purchasing power stagnant for 20 years.
- War with Iran and or with any allies (Russia, China). Trump has sent troops to Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. to help fight Yemen and their ally Iran. Israel and Prince MBS continue to urge Trump to attack Iran if another major deadly domestic event occurs and evidence leads to Iran. Another war may boost Trumps popularity as it has done for past presidents.
But as important as making sure Trump does not win, it is urgent that we join or build volunteer grassroots organizations where we can talk about political issues that impact our lives and where we build trust to protest or march together for something that matters, even if Trump or Pence or other politician declares assemblies illegal. Such a group of our coworkers, neighbors or friends organized to change things together, at the ballot box and in the street, is the basic unit of political power on the ground. No person or politician can “give” us power. It’s real only if a bunch of people organize and take it without permission.
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