Researchers look for early warning signs after Maui Fires

By Randall Yip, AsAmNews Executive Editor

The wind-whipped fire that raged through Maui and killed at least 115 people earlier this month may have left clues about how to avoid similar disasters nationwide.

Winds blowing at 80 miles per hour together with dry weather conditions caused by the drought proved to be a deadly and destructive combination.

“We are doing as much research as we can to try to identify precursors to what causes particular wind storms like that,” said Steve Goldstein of the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration and the agency’s liaison to FEMA.

Goldstein spoke at a virtual briefing attended by AsAmNews comprised of emergency workers and community agencies from across the country responding to disasters.

It’s been widely reported that Hurricane Dora passed south of Hawaii and kicked up winds. Goldstein, however, said that wasn’t the only factor.

“There was a very unusual, hot, dry air mass to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. And the difference between those two, as they sort of got closer to each other, caused that unfortunate tragic windstorm,” he said.

As Goldstein puts it, “manmade changes to a geologic area” met up with nature.

The Los Angeles Times reports the fire in town began at the highest point tucked beneath canyons amidst Santa Ana-like wind conditions.

“The ignition is probably in the worst possible spot,” said Neil Lareau, an assistant professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Nevada-Reno.

It began in a densely populated neighborhood and the fire followed a path downhill to the oceanfront.

CNN reports that Hawaii officials released a report last year listing the risks of wildfire to human life as low. Some say they underestimated the threat of fire and called attempts to minimize the risks ‘inadequate.”

Authorities know now that the risk is real and say they are working to prevent a similar disaster.

“The more we can learn about what the atmosphere did, what it’s going to do, and the chances of more wind storms like that developing again, hopefully more advanced notice, we might be able to provide for wind storms in complex terrain. Hawaii is not alone in having these sort of downslope wind storms.”

He says California and the Mountain West region have similar conditions. He’s hopeful some of the research will lead to identifying the precursors to unfortunate storms. They are looking at specific pressure differences, specific weather patterns, and certain winds.

“As most people know it is challenging to get a direct strike from a hurricane on the Hawaiian Islands. But it is not that difficult to get tropical rainfall. And we certainly don’t want heavy rain on that burn area that we have in Maui. So that’s something that we’re going to be watching closely as the season unfolds,” said Goldstein.

Los Angeles Times

voice Memo 1 (otter)

Liz Asche- FEMA deputy director- “Whole community approach in full effect”

Philip Kim- WH office of Public Engagement – 1. Pres and first lady went to Maui on Monday to show their support. It was a meaningufl trip to connect to those who lost wildfires.

more than 1,000 federal personnel ground

12 M approved to date

Bob Fenton-chief federal response coordinator for Maui appointed.

1.3M funding allocation to help communities on Maui

5M dispersed in rental assistance

50,000 meals

DOD 850 leaders participating

army corp of engineers 67 responders

epa 60 responders

Voice Memo 2 (otter)

Steven Goldstein FEMA laison at hdqts – Hawaii Firestorm, fueled by Hurricane Dora & very unusual hot dry airmass north of islands. The difference of the two caused the windstorm. Manmade changes to a geologic area meet up with nature

what caused these windstorms. what advanced notice can we give about these windstorms. From that tragedy, some of the research will hold some clues….precursor for unfortunate storms like that

voice memo3

April Wood= National VOAD said nothing

Voice Memo 4

Tanya Gulliver-Garcia Center for D_ Philanthropy said nothing

voice memo 5 (otter)

Warren Miller , Small Business Administration

opened business recovery center in Maui- stakeholder call entities local on Island-listening to what locals are telling us what the needs are…to make sure the resources and technical assistance they are going to need for recovery.

translating info into local language for survivors…working with FEMA and other fed agencyies

Voice Memo 6 (otter)

sarah Egan- emergency management specialist, FEMA

stabilizing food and hydration lifeline, 7 sent to support state mass care planning in Maui. tracking access to potable drinking water- looking for damage to those systems more of an issue. broke off that component into its own lifeline

food , hydration and shelfter lifeline

water systems lifeline separated out

Voice Memo 7 (otter)

Emily Kikulies Hawaiin VOAD/ Red cross

coordinating local orgs on the ground- feeding 170,000 plus meals so far…helping shelter 2700 people. Wrap-around services are extensive.

Voice Memo 8 (otter)

WILLIAM TJ PORTER TEAM RUBICON

logistic support = 317 volunteers, 187 pallets of donated good. ash shifting and debris removal…post disaster mitigration, defensible space, fuel reduction, fire breaks within Maui

Voice memo 9

debra boudreaux-tro-buddhist Tze(sp) foundation said nothing

Voice memo 10 (otter)

Aaron McCann- Red Cross in Oahu It was really sad to see what has happened in the community- celebrated her 50th in Lahaina just last year. 430 trained REd Cross deployed to Hawaii or helped virtually . 15K emergency shelter and hotel stays. transition from emergency shelters to hotels in the last week. temp solution give families a comfortable and safe place to stay while more perm. plans are developed. emotional and spiritual care. 87,000 meals and snacks to people in need. 2600 welfare check requests completed.

Voice memo 11

Mike Bivens

voice memo12

Marcus Coleman