Top State nominee Paul Kapur sparks concern in Pakistan

Paul Kapur, Trump’s nominee to head the Bureau of South Asian Affairs, is sparking concern in Pakistan about a shift in US policy away from Islamabad, reported the News International today.

Kapur, who is of Indian origin, is an expert on South Asian security who has written extensively critiquing Pakistan’s nuclear program and their reliance on Islamist militancy. He has been nominated as the Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs and is awaiting Senate confirmation. In this position, Kapur would be poised to direct the administration’s diplomatic ties in the region.

The News International is one of Pakistan’s largest English language newspapers. In addition, Dawn, which is widely considered Pakistan’s newspaper of record, pointed out that the announcement was made to coincide with India’s prime minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US.

If Kapur is confirmed, “Islamabad could find itself under greater pressure to rethink its strategies,” said the Dawn article.

Echoing the perception, Syed Hassan Akbar, Pakistan Fellow at the Wilson Center, told Arab News that Kapur has argued against US security assistance to Pakistan, and called for a “limited economic engagement” between the US and Pakistan.

On the other hand, Pakistan’s geopolitical rival India celebrated the appointment. Kapur has a long track record arguing for greater strategic cooperation between the US and India.

In 2017, Kapur co-wrote a Foreign Affairs article arguing for shifting the manufacture of F-16s to India.

During 2020-2021, he served on the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff and worked on issues relating to South and Central Asia.

Kapur was a critic of the Biden administration’s relations with India, berating them for treating India as a second-tier partner given its strategic importance. Just a few months into the term, he wrote in National Interest that Sec. of Defense Lloyd Austin erred in raising human rights concerns during his trip to India.

“Kapur views India as a top-tier strategic relationship for the US,” said Christopher Clary, an associate professor of political science at the US University at Albany, on X.

If confirmed, Kapur will replace Donald Lu, whose term ended in January. Lu had raised hackles in India when he criticized prime minister Modi’s trip to Moscow during the July 2024 NATO summit in Washington DC.

Lu also faced pushback from Pakistan when he raised concerns about “electoral abuse and violence” in the lead up to their general election in February 2024. The political party of deposed leader Imran Khan, the PTI, had accused Lu of a conspiracy against Khan, which the US State Department denied.

Kapur is a professor of national security affairs at the US Naval Postgraduate School and a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution.

His expertise in the region is rooted in academic work. Most of his writing has been directed towards the security concerns raised by Pakistan’s national policy.

In his 2016 book Jihad as Grand Strategy, Kapur criticized Pakistan’s use of Jihadi terrorists to further its political aims.

In his 2007 book Dangerous Deterrent, Kapur argued that the pursuit of nuclear weapons destabilized the subcontinent.