By Yiming Fu, Report for America corps member
The Lahaina fires caused an estimated 430 people to leave Maui and increased the off-island migration rate by almost 3%, a January 14 University of Hawaii report finds.
While there is still no official data on Maui’s population change, the University of Hawaii researchers analyzed addresses on state tax filings pre-fire and post-fire and compared the two.
Researcher and University of Hawaii economist Dylan Moore said these findings show Maui needs housing solutions to keep people on the island and there’s still an opportunity to get people to stay.
“Maybe they’ve put up with it now, but they won’t put up with it forever,” Moore said.
Nearly half of Maui residents say their financial situation has worsened since the Lahaina fire and about 50% are seriously considering leaving the state, according to a July 2024 Maui Together Wildfire Assessment. Eighty-one percent of fire survivors know someone who has left.
Respondents to the July survey said housing insecurity was their biggest issue, with about 50% of fire survivors moving at least three times since the disaster. About 10% moved six or more times.
Most survey respondents also said they had to cut back grocery spending and medical expenses as well.
“There’s no room for complacency if you want to try and take policy action,” Moore said. “This is a critical time.”
The University of Hawaii looked only at the tax returns of 1,420 residents in fire-damaged homes. Out of those, 1,058 people moved somewhere else on Maui and 242 moved out of state.
The data is not fully comprehensive, the University of Hawaii said in the report, because more than 600 households have yet to file a tax return since the fires.
Moore estimates the real number of people leaving might be 30% bigger than their findings.
In the long run, the numbers will be different, Moore said. People who left might move back to Maui. And people who stayed one year may now be thinking of going. Many fire survivors still live in temporary housing arrangements.
“We’re already coming up on the time for people to file the next set of tax returns, and when we look at that we might see there are more people that have left. In fact, I would expect that there are more people who have left. How many more is hard to say.”
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